The whole story is right there, in Huffpost Pollster’s chart aggregating all of the Iowa polls.
As recently as Labor Day, Bernie still had not broken through the 30% ceiling among Democrats prophesied by many pundits including our own Kos. Yet, at this writing, the aggregate puts Bernie at nearly 150% of that forecast aggregate, in Iowa at least, and only 2.1% behind Secretary Clinton, amidst late hour polling that is all over the place. The three most recent polls have Secretary Clinton beating Bernie twice by 9 points and losing to him once, by the same 9 points.
But the most constant result disclosed by the aggregate is the ever so gently rising performance of Martin O’Malley at between 4 and 5 points. That suggests that Mom’s caucus goers really do exist in Iowa and may show up at their meeting places, averaging one or two precinct delegates per 50 caucus attendees. That is where the Byzantine nature of the rules governing the Iowa caucuses comes into play.
In a typical caucus, registered democrats gather at the precinct meeting places (there are close to 2,000 precincts statewide), supporters for each candidate have a chance to make their case, and then the participants gather into groups supporting particular candidates (undecided voters also cluster into a group). In order for a particular group to be viable, they must have a certain percentage of the all the caucus participants. If they don’t have enough people, the group disbands, and its members go to another group. The percentage cut-off is determined by the number of delegates assigned to the precinct.
Under the rules, the minimum amount of support a candidate must have in order to remain viable is 15%. When Martin O’Malley’s delegates find out they didn’t get the number they need, they face a binary choice: go home or go to another group. My crystal ball says they won’t go home. In most precincts, I don’t think the undecideds will muster 15% either, and they will face the same choice. Some, maybe most of them will stay around, too.
But to do that, they must join another group, which my crystal ball says will be, again, a binary choice: Bernie or Hillary.
Which way will MOM’s delegates and the undecided delegates break at the Iowa Democratic Precinct Caucuses? Consider this exchange from the last pre-caucus debate, with MOM reacting to Secretary Clinton’s claims about her nifty, keeno plans to reign in Wall Street:
Martin O'Malley: That's not true.
Hillary Clinton: It builds on the Dodd-Frank -- yes, it is. It builds on the Dodd-Frank, regulatory scheme...
Martin O'Malley: It's just not true.
Hillary Clinton: ... but it goes much further, because...
Martin O'Malley: Oh, come on.
Which way, indeed!