“Bernie Sanders can’t win the general election” has been a rallying cry of his critics since Sanders entered the presidential primary race last April. In an election where a Republican victory could mean the end of federal funding for Planned Parenthood, a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, the appointment of several conservative Supreme Court Justices, and a good old-fashioned grab bag of random political lunacy, suggesting that Sanders simply can’t beat any Republican in the general election is a powerful—if perhaps cynical—argument. The prospect is so troubling that it’s even got some Sanders supporters anxious about voting for him, which could compel them to vote for Clinton in the primary instead.
There’s one major problem with this line of thinking: The numbers don’t support it.
A New York Times roundup of recent results from the battleground states of Iowa and New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders outperforming Hillary Clinton among registered voters in hypothetical general-election polling matchups. According to The Times, Sanders would defeat Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, the three leading Republican candidates, in New Hampshire. In Iowa he leads Trump and Cruz and is tied with Rubio.
The results are due in part to Sanders being “buoyed by the support of independent voters.” Attracting independent voters and bringing new people, such as young voters, to the polls is crucial to winning a general election. While Clinton currently leads Sanders among Democratic voters in the primary race, Sanders excels among young voters and Democrat-leaning independents, in some polls by over 20 percent in each of those demographics, potentially giving him an edge in swing states and the broader general election.
This is not a new trend.
Sanders has repeatedly outperformed Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head polling matchups in the Hawkeye and Granite States, as well as other battleground states. The Hill reported on Sanders pulling ahead of Clinton in polls of general election polling matchups in some swing states as far back as July, noting that Clinton was becoming vulnerable to many of her Republican rivals. Likewise, The Huffington Post reported in August on polls showing Sanders doing better than Clinton against Republicans in the general election in Iowa and Colorado. NBC reported similar results in October.
This is not to say that Sanders is always the likely favorite in head-to-head polling matchups in swing states. In Virginia, for instance, both Sanders and Clinton poll better than Trump, but Clinton leads by a wider margin, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling aggregate. Clinton also polls better against Rubio in some matchups. Both Dems trail Rubio in Ohio, for instance, but Clinton trails by an average of only two percentage points while Sanders trails by three. Those numbers would still be considered a statistical tie, in either case.
What’s most significant is that Sanders isn’t just outperforming Clinton in state polling matchups. He now outperforms her in aggregate polling data of hypothetical head-to-head matchups in the general election.