The Year of Trump is upon us. And in the grand tradition of political commentators making rash predictions, here are my forecasts for the year ahead.
Disclaimer: These educated guesses will probably turn out to be hilariously wrong come December 2016, but if I wait until November 7 (the day before Election Day) to predict the outcomes, then I'm no better than those careful nerds at FiveThirtyEight. And where's the fun in that?
Who will win the Republican Nomination? Donald Trump. Yes, I'm putting a stake down on that xenophobic nutjob. Others say that's not going to happen--Dana Milbank says he'll physically eat a newspaper if Trump is the nominee. But here are my reasons:
- Trump has been atop the polls nationally since July 2015. Let that sink in. He's also ahead in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Despite walking around in a state of near constant verbal diarrhea all his life, Trump has proven that controversy, racism, sexism, and occasional insanity is entertaining (go figure) and exactly what some voters want--especially Republican voters. Say no to political correctness! Give in to your baser instincts! Vote Trump!
- The somewhat-less-but-still-crazy alternative, Ted Cruz, might win Iowa and his organization is strong in the primarily Southern, Super Tuesday (March 1) states, but Trump isn't going to bow out like a fairy princess. If he loses Iowa, it might make him even more reckless (and therefore more effective) and more willing to spend his money, which has largely been kept in reserve. Cruz might be a more acceptable crazy alternative, but his success depends on Trump's supporters "wisening" up. They won't. Trump's rallies are huge. His fans are adoring. He speaks for them.
- The establishment alternative, Marco Rubio, just doesn't seem to have it in him. Don't get me wrong, if Rubio puts in a strong 3rd in Iowa, beats the other establishment candidates in New Hampshire (Christie, Bush, Kasich), and wins a couple Super Tuesday states, he might force consolidate establishment support and give Trump a real competitor. But a lot of dominoes have to fall into place for that to happen. Luck isn't a great strategy, Marco.
Who will win the Democratic Nomination? Hillary Clinton. Surprise surprise. Bernie might give her a run for her money in New Hampshire, but if Bernie ever emerges as a plausible alternative, I expect Democrats to wake up and realize they're about to nominate a socialist, and that probably won't sit well in the general election, even if, on a substantive level, most Americans agree with Bernie on Wall Street reform, national health care, and a host of issues.
Who will win the Presidential Election? Hillary Clinton. Jokingly, I like to say that Hillary is running on a platform of "Hillary. Deal with it." It's not inspiring, but it's true. When people look at the GOP alternative, they'll vote for her. Plus, Hillary is much better campaigner in 2016 than she was in 2008. Watch one of her rallies. Seriously. She feels authentic, real, and comfortable. For the first time, it seems like Hillary's campaigning towards her better angels and not away from them for the sake of political expediency. In 2016, Hillary will give us an underwhelming convention speech, three surprisingly fun debate performances (where she'll milk Trump's sexism for everything it's worth), and then win solidly.
What will the Electoral College map look like? Now this is tricky. But here's my rough guess:
I'm not at all confident in my prediction for Ohio. Florida, Virginia, and Colorado are also tough calls.
Who will win the Senate? +4 Democrats (50-50 tie in the Senate). Republicans currently hold 54 seats in the Senate. They're defending 24 of those seats this year. Only 10 Democratic seats are up this year. If the GOP loses 4 seats and loses the Presidency (giving a Democratic Vice President the tie-breaking vote), they lose the Senate. I think Democrats will pick up Illinois, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. And if Trump is the nominee, I think the Dems will be able to pick off Pennsylvania, and hold onto their endangered seats in Colorado and Nevada.
Who will win the House? +10 Dems. The GOP now holds a 246-188 majority. That majority is overinflated due to gerrymandering, Obama fatigue in 2014, and Democratic voters' propensity to skip non-Presidential elections. Cook Political Report says there are 232 safe or leaning Republican seats--enough to keep their majority. My guess is the Democrats will win most of the remaining 20 tossup seats (15 of which are held by Republicans now).
Who will win the Governorships? +2 GOP. This question deserves more attention than I'm willing to give it right now, but, to be brief, there are 12 governors races in 2016. It's an unfriendly map for Democrats, with an incumbent Democrat running for reelection in Montana, and Democrats leaving office in Missouri, West Virginia and New Hampshire. The Republicans, meanwhile, are defending in safer states like Indiana, Utah, and North Carolina. I bet the GOP will pick up Missouri and West Virginia, and the Dems will hold on to NH and Montana. My guess: +2 GOP.
Think I'm wrong? Let me know.
-Alvin
Blogging at www.politicalwhiskey.wordpress.com