What to watch for in Iowa tonight

Here's a few things to look for as results start coming in Monday night:

• Did voter turnout increase?

Here's a chart summarizing how many people participated in the caucuses in the past (rounded to the nearest hundred):

*With incumbent presidents Bush and Obama running for reelection in 2004 and 2012, turnout was negligible in their respective caucuses.

If GOP turnout increases over previous years, it will most likely benefit Donald Trump, who needs new voters to enter the process and overwhelm the social conservatives who traditionally dominate the caucuses. Increased turnout would also lend credence to Trump's belief that emotional arguments and demagoguery can just as effectively mobilize the Republican base as grassroots organizing. The National Review says 135,000 is the magic number--Trump will win if over 135,000 people turn out and Cruz will win if it's less than 135,000.

Democrats aren't likely to beat 2008's record-breaking 240,000, but if the number of caucus-goers is anywhere close to that, Bernie Sanders' revolution is nigh, and Clinton will have a long slog to the nomination. Clinton is depending on reliable caucus goers, especially those over 65. Bernie is hoping every college student in the state comes out for him.

In 2008, the dramatic Democratic turnout demonstrated Obama's strong grassroots organizing skills, the energy behind his candidacy, and previewed his electoral landslide against McCain in November. What will this year's results preview?

• Does Rubio have a surprisingly good night?

Sunday's Des Moines Register poll showed Rubio with 15%, but other polls have shown him closer to Cruz, and possibly vying for second place. Coming off a strong debate performance last week, Rubio may have some last minute mojo. He's attracting larger crowds across the state.

A solid performance could cement Rubio as the establishment alternative to Trump and Cruz. A third-place performance is absolutely essential. But even more critically, Rubio needs his rivals in the moderate/establishment lane (Kasich, Bush, Christie) to tank.

• Who's winning the rural areas?

Donald Trump has largely avoided rural Iowa, preferring large rallies in cities. Getting voters to turn out in rural areas takes time, money, and organizational resources. Cruz has those in spades. So does Hillary Clinton. Turnout in rural areas, and the preferences of rural voters can tell us two things: 1) Who's a better organizer and how good was their organization really, and (2) who can perform better in rural primaries and rural states in future primaries and the November elections.

In 2008, Obama's strength in rural Iowa showed that his organization was the real deal, turning out new voters in hard to reach rural areas. This, in turn, previewed his strength in other rural primary and caucus states. Obama won Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Missouri. He racked up delegates in these states, beating Hillary Clinton, who focused her efforts on bigger fish--California, New York, Florida. Obama's strategy also previewed that 1 electoral vote he won in Nebraska in November (yes, if you've forgotten just how sweeping Obama's electoral victory was in 2008, he not only won an electoral vote in ruby red Nebraska, but also won Indiana--Indi-fucking-ana).

This year, I expect that Clinton has upped her game a bit. Her campaign team is made up of Obama campaign veterans. And in 2008 middle-class white voters liked her. Tonight we'll find out just how much.

• Is Hillary gonna cake-walk to the nomination?

The Democratic race is a tossup, with most pollsters giving Hillary a slight edge. If she wins, she might still lose New Hampshire, but Bernie Sanders may have lost his chance to make this a real race.

Remember that Bernie is strong in New Hampshire because he's from neighboring Vermont and the state is basically his demographic heaven for him--it's disproportionately filled with white liberals (FiveThirtyEight). Clinton is strong in both South Carolina and Nevada, the 3rd and 4th primaries. If she wins 3 out of the 4 first primaries, this could be over quickly.

What will you be watching for?

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