24 hours from the results of the Iowa caucus, all the polls are in and professional forecasters have made their calls.
- 538: Hillary has a 79% chance of winning the Iowa caucus.
- Predictwise: Hillary, 74% chance
- RealClearPolitics: Clinton, 47-43
- Google Trends: Sanders, 52% of search interest to Hillary 42%
- Ballotcraft: Sanders 52.5%
Would a DK crowdsourced forecast be more accurate? Let’s set aside our own preferred candidate and poll what people think WILL happen tonight.
The Iowa Democratic party won’t release actual vote counts, only the number of state delegate equivalents awarded.
In 2008, Obama won 940 delegates, Edwards 744, Clinton 737.
