Finally, tomorrow, the first of 50 states and several territories will head to the polls (to the caucus specifically), to begin their verdict on what has been — so far — the most unusual Presidential campaign in my lifetime.
Since Iowa kicks it off tomorrow I want to focus this particular analysis on the caucus tomorrow evening. Note — this is not my endorsement or wishful thinking. I see what I see from the reports on the ground and the polling numbers. And here’s where we’re at:
- From the polling, it’s clear that Hillary Clinton is somewhat ahead of Bernie Sanders. From the tracking of polls over the last month, it was clear that Bernie had some momentum but then it stalled somewhat, leaving him in a very close race. On the Democratic side, it really is all about turnout.
- People like to cherry-pick polls that favor their candidate on this site, and there have certainly been some out of Iowa the show Bernie ahead. But in reality, he’s not. I can cite Nate Silver, rattle all of the polls off — but the bottom line is she’s ahead.
- Trump is clearly now ahead of Cruz. I don’t know if this is because Cruz peaked to early, or Trump’s attacks on him worked, but every poll now shows Trump leading, and getting a nice chunk of that all-important evangelical vote.
- The weather: There is now a blizzard watch in the state, and the storm is expected to hit right after the caucuses let out. So who does that stop? Older voters who are afraid of ice and snow? College voters who will feel like it’s easier just to stay home and have a blizzard party? Tough to say, but it is a variable, and depending on how fast (or slow) the weather system develops it may be something we are talking about tomorrow night.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #1: The DMR/Selzer poll is showing that Hillary’s supporters are as enthusiastic as Bernie’s. So much for that vaunted enthusiasm gap.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #2: The Clinton campaign has a strategy of propping up O’Malley to make him viable in precincts where that is helpful to them, or harmful to Sanders.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #3: There is clearly a bloc of votes that is torn between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. For them it’s all about sticking it to the establishment, and the question is whether they want to do that from the right or from the left. The Iowa caucus is open (as is the NH primary) — does a huge turnout for one hurt the other? Probably.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #4: There is talk of a mini-surge for Rubio. Is it real? That depends on whether it is the result of Rubio himself, or of the Republican establishment clinging to the strongest non-Cruz, non-Trump candidate they can find and talking him up.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #5: One of the things that may be driving support for Hillary is the popularity of President Obama, and the fact that the Sander’s campaign argument is implicitly attacking the Obama policies as too timid, even if he doesn’t specifically do that in his ads or stump speech.
- What we’ve learned this weekend #6: Carson seems to be enjoying a bit of a rebound, and that’s at the expense of Ted Cruz. Could this Carson boomlet be what costs Cruz a win in Iowa?
- What we’ve learned this weekend #7: Bill Clinton may be having a more subdued presence on the campaign trail, but it is clear from lots of polling that the Big Dog is still very popular.
That’s what’s apparent on the ground. Who wins? I think you have to give the edge to Hillary on our side, and that’s not really surprising. On the GOP side? Trump clearly has broken the Republican party already — and he will probably win it — which means that the Republicans will discover that their party is broken. And that makes it worth watching the coverage tomorrow night with adult beverages and lots of popcorn! Can we get John Boehner on? He’ll cry on camera for all of us to see…
